System Design Alternatives
There is certainly no lack of methods for predicting time series. Traditional econometric models (e.g. ARMA) as well as various GARCH formulations have been extensively applied. More recently models based on Pareto-Levy (nonlinear) distributions incorporating embeddings in phase-space reconstructions have had some success. Neural networks, genetic algorithms, and their A.I. spinoffs are also used with […]
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The Trend is not Always Your Friend?
Today on the CNBC TV channel, an old time trader and newsletter writer Dennis Gartman was very bullish on metals and bearish on the US Dollar. It sounds to me like a promotional script to attract the public to follow the trend. Is it time to respect historical levels and be a contrarian? […]
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Positioning For Collapse
Today’s trade in the June S&P continued the advance which came on the heels of the key reversal bottom which formed this past Monday. This three day advance fits perfectly with my expectation for the trend to reverse at the 4/22-4/23 time target. The post yesterday explained procedurally that I would expect the move to […]
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“Hi-yo, Silver! Away!”
Silver is now approaching the January 1980 peak of $50.20 per oz. Traders who follow historic data will watch this level carefully. To be a Lone Ranger and pick a market top, you will need a mechanical timing trading tool. This is what I discuss in my webinars. Happy Trading.
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Red Alert Continued
The strength we saw in the major equity indices today is more consistent with the market forming a top as we approach time targets of 4/22 and 4/23. Based on the notion that the market low that formed two days ago on 4/18 represents the start of a new thrust upward, the expectation is that its run […]
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A Fairy Tale
Once upon a time, many eons ago,there lived a young man, who lived in the district of the “Dark Side”. His village was so named, since it was widely believed that no one could predict the future. Being a young lad he found this quite sad and at least quite peculiar. For what was obvious […]
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Intra-Day Time Projection
The charts of the 5 minute e-mini show a precise application of a geometric time projection I made earlier this morning. The use of a circle drawn with its center at the bottom at 8:15 and its circumference point at the high of 8:40, projected a time target of 12:05. The second chart shows the […]
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